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Criteria for causality
Criteria for causality











criteria for causality

The misuse of VAERS isn’t a new trend parties opposed to vaccines have been using this tactic for a long time, as noted by Vaxopedia. Many would quickly dismiss the idea that roosters are the cause of sunrise, but that statement illustrates the same line of reasoning that leads some people to assert that the COVID-19 vaccines are dangerous on the basis of VAERS reports, as Health Feedback covered in previous reviews here, here, and here. XKCD explains the fallacy in three panels. Indeed, if we used temporality as the only determinant of causality, we might well conclude that it is the crowing of the rooster that causes the sun to rise, since roosters generally crow before sunrise. ( Here you can see humorous examples illustrating this fallacy, also known in Latin as post hoc ergo propter hoc, meaning “after this, therefore because of this”.) The problem arises when we rely solely on temporality to establish causality. Not all evidence is created equal: why adverse event reports aren’t enoughĪs stated previously, temporality is essential to causality. Returning to our original question: How do we know if an adverse event was caused by a vaccine? Given that health problems, like heart inflammation and blood clotting disorders, existed long before COVID-19 vaccines were developed, how can researchers distinguish between a true side effect and an adverse event that occurred due to coincidence and/or bad luck? This review explains how.

criteria for causality criteria for causality

These allergic reactions are considered a side effect, since they are causally linked to the egg protein in the vaccine. For example, certain types of egg proteins in the flu vaccine can trigger an allergic reaction in people with egg allergy. The terms “adverse reaction ” and “side effect” are only used to refer to adverse events known to be caused by the vaccine. In this case, the cause of the broken leg is obviously not the vaccine, but the car accident. For example, a broken leg after a car accident that happened to someone who just received a vaccine would be considered an adverse event. The term “adverse event ” describes all health problems that occur after vaccination, regardless of whether it’s caused by the vaccine. Some use the terms “adverse events”, “adverse reactions”, and “side effects” interchangeably, but these terms have significantly different meanings in the context of public health. Some popular ones are the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) in the U.S., EudraVigilance, which covers most of Europe, and the Yellow Card Scheme in the U.K.īefore we go any further, it’s important to define the term “adverse event”, which is commonly misunderstood. References to vaccine adverse events databases can be commonly found on the Internet. Patterns of unusually high numbers of adverse events alert authorities to investigate these cases in detail to determine if the vaccine was indeed the cause. Providing everyone with an avenue for reporting such events helps authorities detect potential safety concerns, for example when reports of a particular adverse event, such as anaphylaxis or blood clots, are unusually high after receipt of a certain vaccine. It’s even a key concept that underpins public health authorities’ efforts to collect information on adverse events occurring after vaccinations. This means that causes precede effects in time. The idea that an event was caused by an earlier event isn’t an unexpected train of thought-after all, one key indicator of causality is temporality. While some media outlets are careful not to attribute post-vaccination adverse events to the vaccine until scientific evidence supports it, other outlets persistently place such events in the spotlight, sometimes suggesting that these events are caused by the vaccines. ĭiscussing risks in a manner that isn’t misleading has proved to be a challenge, even for public health experts, let alone the media. After all, the weaponizing of vaccine-related communications to amplify vaccine misinformation, employed by multiple parties including the anti-vaccine movement, has been documented by researchers. While it’s critical to be vigilant and informed about potential safety concerns with the vaccines, communicating this subject is fraught with the potential of fuelling vaccine misinformation. This is unsurprising-vaccine safety, and in particular adverse events occurring after COVID-19 vaccination, have been the subject of scrutiny from regulatory agencies, scientists, and the public. Whether you’re watching the news or scrolling through your social media feeds, you’re certain to come across content about COVID-19 vaccines.













Criteria for causality